Independent Investment Consulting

June was shaped by Middle East tensions, a sharp but short-lived oil price spike, and diverging central bank paths, with the Fed on hold and the ECB cutting rates. Trump’s renewed attacks on Powell pressured the dollar, while the BIS warned of rising global fragility. A 90-day US-China tariff truce brought only temporary relief to markets.

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, with rising trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and tightening financial conditions threatening growth. Inflation risks remain high, driven by trade disruptions—though lower commodity prices may offer some relief. A reversal in trade tensions could provide a much-needed boost.

May 2025 saw a shift in the global landscape: the U.S. economy contracted, Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt, and trade tensions eased with delayed tariffs. Equity markets rallied, especially in Europe and North America. Friedrich Merz became Germany’s new Chancellor, Pope Leo XIV was elected, and bond yields rose as markets reacted to fiscal concerns and central bank signals.